And here's the second half...of the Second and One Preseason Power Rankings!!! All assessments were made during training camp or at the start of the preseason.
16. Atlanta Falcons
Props: The Falcons, like the Bears, are moving in the right direction after a few seasons of slop (especially 2007). Matt Ryan has no doubt helped with the cause in the past two years, posting two consecutive winning records (08 and 09, see below for more info on how significant this is.
Slops: Despite what everyone says, the Falcons need to play with more consistency. Did you know that, among all major sports franchises in the country, that the Falcons hold the record for longest drought without consecutive winning seasons – this was 42 years. Aye caramba. So. Long story short; if they want to make that three years, they need Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White to be in top form. It would also help if their secondary didn’t play five yards off the ball all the time and actually worked on improving their pass-rush.
17. Denver Broncos
Props: Josh McDaniels is another one of these guys who’s wound up like a giant spring and ready to blast off at any minute (and we wouldn’t expect any less from Bill Belicheck’s protégé). The Broncos are also in good shape in that they’re totally stacked at quarterback, have generally good special teams, and have a propensity to come out of the gate swinging.
Slops: There are a lot of theories as to why it is the Broncos have a habit of starting strong and fizzling midseason, from accumulating injuries to initially training in high altitudes and then ceasing this training regimen as the stress of the season builds. The Broncos are now starting with both running backs (although one less than another) and a defensive end a bit banged up. Pay attention to: how the loss of Brandon Marshall affects receiver chemistry.
"Hey, want me to blow a vuvuzela while you're at it?" Source: AP, name unknown.
18. Houston Texans
Props: The Texans, in 2009, were the undisputed pass-wackiest team in the league, throwing for more yards than the Patriots, Saints, and Colts. No doubt, WR Andre Johnson contributed, with an average of almost 100 receiving yards per game. We can expect this continue in 2010, as the Cattle Ranch added two more receivers in the draft.
Slops: Despite knocking on the door in recent years, the Texans have never been to the playoffs. Ever! For some perspective: even though the Detroit Lions have existed longer, even they’ve been to the playoffs. Perhaps it’s things like the special teams errors (missing two game-tying field goals against Indianapolis: truly painful) and persistent drama with people like LB Brian Cushing, who is now claiming that his positive test for a banned hormone (the same one that pregnancy tests detect) was biologically natural and due to something called “Overtrained Athlete Syndrome.” Really? I’d believe him saying he was pregnant and biologically female before I’d believe this cow-pie of a story.
19. Minnesota Vikings (without Favre)
They made the playoffs in 2008, but I wouldn't expect it to look the same in 2010. See the "slops" version of the Vikings with Favre in Part 1.
20. Washington Redskins
Props: After a dreadful season last year, the ‘Skins also scored in free agency, acquiring Donovan McNabb – who still plays pretty well after a lot of years in Philadelphia. Also, (everyone saw it coming) Dan Snyder booted Jim Zorn (who now coaches the quarterbacks in Baltimore, of all places) and hired Mike Shanahan, who may just light a proverbial fire under some backsides. Also: Albert Haynesworth has finally stopped bleating about playing in a 3-4 scheme and they’re getting down to business, and did anyone see their preseason game last night, in which they (including the Kiddie Redskins) positively beat Buffalo’s swords into ploughshares?
Slops: Just like the government in their hometown, the Redskins are sloppy and inefficient, if some of the nastier games last season were any indication, there’s a lot of error and just plain bad play calling (which hopefully will improve). Their offensive line acts like a turnstile and lets everyone through. Also: how about their special teams: the ‘Skins boasted (if you can call it that) the second-lowest field-goal completion percentage last year, and who can forget those awful special teams trick plays? Vote this playbook out of office, please.
21. Tennessee Titans
Props: After a positively terrible start to last season, The Titans put in Vince Young, went 5-0 afterwards, and actually sort of looked like the 2008 Titans until Indianapolis put the kibosh on that. But who really cares who’s standing under center for the Titans as long as they can hand off: the Titans are a running team, and likely will be as long as the brass keeps Chris Johnson happy, which they currently are (I think). Also: the Titans have good special teams.
Slops: The Titans lost Kyle Van den Bosch, Kevin Mawae, and Keith Bullock. They have an omnipresent mess in their secondary, which was ranked 31st last year. Even though this statistic is skewed by injuries, 31st was below Seattle, for cryin’ out loud. Nobody knows what Jeff Fischer will do at the second corner slot this year (right now it looks like “It’s Verner! It’s Mouton! It’s McCourty! It’s Mickey Mouse!”) The Titans also are the ultimate in bad karma: assault, weed and steroids, speeding, suspended licenses, contract holdouts, disastrous practices, media meltdowns, stadium malfunctions - it’s like the Dallas Cowboys, circa 1995, all over again, except the Cowboys were actually good. And they drafted LeGarrette Blount, who will be known as “that guy from Oregon who decked that guy from Boise on TV” until he dies. Ugh.
22. Miami Dolphins
Props: The dolphins are one of the few teams that can actually capitalize successfully off of the wildcat formation (although the Eagles, Titans, Broncos, and Vikings have tried in recent years). I posted a statistic a while back that the Dolphins (Ca. 2008) averaged 8.9 yards/play with this formation, which is pretty impressive. And of course, they get to play in Miami, where they never have to worry about a home game being snowed out (cf. Chicago, Baltimore).
Slops: Miami’s biggest problem is their inconsistency. They’re great one week, and then they’re terrible the next. They accumulate surprisingly good statistics and finish 0.500 or lower, so they’re incredibly difficult to figure out, especially for lousy analysts like me. Also: pay attention to QB depth.
This is the Vikings without Brett Favre: Clowns in helmets. Source: AP, source unknown.
23. Carolina Panthers
Props: The Big Black Cats suddenly got too hot to handle at the end of last season, knocking off both Minnesota and the Giants with an alarming sense of kamikaze-esque bravado when QB Matt More stood in for Jake Delhomme (who’s now been offloaded onto Cleveland). The Panthers also have DeAngelo Williams, who single-handedly provides them with an amazing running attack.
Slops: Like Miami, Carolina suffers most from inconsistency. The Panthers became derailed in 2009 after a frightful playoff game in which they got positively ravaged at home by Arizona. They’ve shaken some of the dust off, but nobody knows if they will start hot – or be able to stay hot, as they have eight starts (nine?) between the four QBs they had in camp. The Panthers also suffer from some of the worst play-calling in the NFC: Why does a team with Williams in its backfield still call over 20 pass plays per game? Will the presence of Jimmy Clausen, or Steve Smith’s broken arm, somehow change this?
24. San Francisco 49ers
Props: So what do we have in San Fran? The Niners have had a good running game (although last year’s stats didn’t show it) and have looked good in this category in the preseason. This will likely continue, especially with the signing of Brian Westbrook to replace Glen Coffee (who retired because Jesus apparently told him to get a Masters’ degree). On the opposite side, the 49ers have a good rush defense as well, ranked 6th last season. Additionally, the 49ers drafted some incredibly physical new players this season.
Slops: ...Who are the physical guys up in the offensive front protecting? Alex smith, who was ranked below average in passing yards last year? Also: watch out for general inconsistencies, coaching meltdowns (we hope not), and the sophomore manifestation of the Crabtree Curse.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars
Props: The Jaguars are a sort of like the 49ers, only a waterier, less unpredictable, made-from-concentrate version of the 49ers. They’ve also got a good running game (better than SF) and, now, a solid commitment to not being bad anymore after several consecutive losing seasons. So maybe they’re more like a weak version of the Tennessee Titans.
Cons: Also like the 49ers, the Jags’ quarterbacking ranks slightly below average and their offense isn’t particularly explosive, scoring only about 2 ppg on average more than Detroit last year. Their defense is also pretty lukewarm, overall, however, boasting none of the hole-plugging of San Francisco (and Lordy, that sounds all sorts of wrong.) Let’s not forget about the lousy drafting, their low ticket sales, the jabber about moving the team to Los Angeles, and the general feeling that the some part of the organization is so far out of touch that they’re in low orbit around Neptune.
26. Seattle Seahawks
Props: We’re getting down to the bottom of the pile here, so let’s say that the Seahawks have one thing going for them. They’re not worse than they already are, and they’ve probably hit rock bottom and have nowhere to go but up. They did fine in the draft, and the addition of former Jets RB Leon Washington will help them improve their run game (which was ranked #26 last season. Ow.) Additionally, thank heavens Matt Hasselbeck will be starting.
Slops: Lord knows, it hasn’t been easy. They sign TJ Houshmandzadeh to only have him score thrice in the regular season. They hire Pete Carroll as head coach after Holmgren left for the Browns (and Mora got canned), only to have a host of allegations of wrongdoing from his USC days surface. They trade away picks to get LenDale White from the Titans, only to cut him a month later following a drug suspension and send him packing to Denver. They draft former ND product Golden Tate, only to have him break into a donut shop at 3AM. It’s like they’re trying to improve, but they keep giving themselves the Rube Goldberg Award in the process.
Of course, he shouldn't show his face in public...he's a Titan, right? Source: The Tennessean
27. Kansas City Chiefs
Props: One of the reasons that Chiefs games haven’t been canceled for humanitarian reasons yet is that they do have some deep sleepers on the roster. Matt Cassel once lead the New England Patriots to 11-5. Thomas Jones, coming off a 1400-yard rushing season, has departed New Jersey for Missouri to add to a team that predominantly depends on the rush. Chris Chambers can catch (or so we think).
Slops: The problem with the Chiefs is that they’re the football equivalent of a four-year-old assembling a jigsaw puzzle. The pieces have been jammed together without any rhyme or reason in any way they can fit, and as a result, pieces are missing and the whole picture doesn’t make any sense. I don’t know what happened in 2007 when the axles both seemed to break at once, but it’s been a nightmare ever since. What can a team do with deep sleepers if they even give the illusion that nobody can catch (23rd) and nobody can defend (allowed almost 400 yards/game in 2009 with an average margin of defeat of 14 points. Good Grieving Gravy.)
28. Oakland Raiders
Props: Now it’s gotten just plain unpleasant. I think one positive for the Raiders is that JaMarcus Russell is gone (even though they still owe him an egregious amount of money) because he clearly wasn’t cutting the mustard. Jason Campbell (while coming from a milquetoast Redskins team) will be an improvement. The Raiders are also one of these teams that can leap out and beat someone when they least expect it. The Steelers, Eagles, and Bengals were all casualties last year.
Slops: I talk a lot about bad psychology here, and the Raiders have some of the worst. The Vikings may have their Brett Favre drama and the Titans and Bengals may have half the team trying to make parole in addition to the playoffs, but the Raiders have truly deep, sticky, nagging, horrible skeletons in their closet: A head coach with a nasty temper. Almost 40 million dollars down the tube for the JaMarcus experiment. This abrasive gangster image (that some people like, strangely), fans with a reputation for being rude, and the worst yet: seven consecutive seasons of 11 or more losses. A short analysis of just what’s going on: average margin of victory in 2009: 2.8 points. Average margin of defeat is just about 18. So when they win, they play down to the level teams are on when they have very bad days, and when they lose, they’re really getting pounded. That’s a whole lot of slop.
29. Detroit Lions
Props: My significant other is masochistic enough to like the Lions, so I have to do this all the time. The Lions. Will not. Suck. Forever. Matthew Stafford, if he can stay healthy, is smart, he’s got plenty of energy, and he’s all of 22 years old. Calvin Johnson can actually catch a football contrary to popular beliefs. There are some fresh faces on defense. Jahvid Best can run. Ndamukong Suh wants to eat Aaron Rodgers with butter and a few shallots. Does anyone remember the New Orleans ‘Aints, with the original paper bags over heads, Hurricane Katrina, and 20–plus years of Gawd-awful quarterbacking? Now does anyone remember last year, how the ‘Aints won some big game called the Super Bowl, whatever that is? Does anyone get what I’m talking about?
Slops: They’re the Lions, and have historically been bad. Nothing damages a team’s psyche more than half-a-century of everyone – fans, management, the media, torturous psychological conditioning – telling them that they stink worse than a slaughterhouse in July. See. Just about everyone who lives in Georgia likes the Falcons, and just about everyone who lives in Minnesota likes the Vikings. I was actually born and raised in Michigan and only like watching the Lions when the Bears beat them. It really is that sad. Oh, and their defense was ranked dead last in just about anything. It’s like they don’t even know what they’re defending, beyond the post-apocalyptic wasteland that is most of Detroit.
30. Buffalo Bills
Props: Can we say anything positive about the Buffalo Bills beyond that they didn’t go 0-16 last year and now have a new head coach?
Slops: The Buffalo Bills need a quarterback, among other people. And I have to rank them lower than the Lions because while they’ve actually been to four Super Bowls, they lost four consecutive times (Ow.), they’re tied with the Lions for consecutive years failed to make the playoffs, and if they can make Terrell Owens look like nothing more than a gigantic, coverage-drawing decoy, they’re probably not even trying. The situation’s so dire that they actually tried to sack their ENTIRE coaching staff at the beginning of the year. It’s dire indeed. Several years ago, I was aimlessly whining at someone from Buffalo about the Bears having yet another unimpressive season (they finished 8-8 or something). He looked at me and groaned, “Please. We have the #%@$ing Bills.” I could see it in his eyes – the entire franchise is cursed sideways.
Tom Cable did not deck this guy. It's an illusion. I swear. Source: AP, name unknown.
31. St. Louis Rams
Props: They’re just starting over at the QB position with Sam Bradford. And I think this is a good move, owing that nobody they had was going anywhere. We’re counting, of course, that his receivers will have gotten off the bus and that his O-line won’t revert to Swiss cheese status during the game, but it’s a rebuilding tool regardless. Also: Let’s talk about Steven Jackson. Ranked in the top three in nearly every category last season (except scoring and fumbles)? That’s insanity. Opponents (like the Saints) tend to stack the box against Jackson, which seems to not work consistently. Jackson-in-the-box?
Slops: Everything that isn’t Stephen Jackson and Sam Bradford. Has anyone else besides me heard the term “SOSA” used to describe the Rams? It stands for “Same-Old Sorry-@$$es.” We know that the running game is going to be offensive…but which kind of offensive?
32. Cleveland Browns
Props: The Browns are also shaking things up on offense. We’ve got some fresh faces at the QB position in Seneca Wallace (of former Seahawks fame), Texas rookie Colt McCoy, and veteran Jake Delhomme. Like for St. Louis, it’s a start. They also did not have a half-bad draft (I’d grade them above average) – a new running back and a wideout may be the beginning of offensive rebuilding.
Slops: The Browns were a disaster last season. Ok. Maybe disaster is too nice of a word. How about the usual problems? Lack of discipline and cohesiveness, inability to score, and not enough coverage to be even PG-13 rated, and the crippling depression that was playing in Cleveland got so bad that Eric Mangini considered signing LeBron James (shame he’s now got to do that for the Dolphins). Additionally, the Browns suffered from terribly conservative play calling. I watched them during a tailspin against Baltimore last season (or maybe the year before) There they were, being pummeled on Monday Night Football, sixteen in the hole, and they were messing about with short runs and rinky-dink slant passes – throw the ball downfield, please! If you want to score, you need to put some urgency into it. If they do change the plays to take more risks, they’ve now got one of the league’s biggest pick-tossers in Delhomme. Darned if you do, darned if you don’t.
33. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Props: Defensive end Gerald McCoy. Also: Rookie QB Josh Freeman is 22 years old and has lots of room (and time) for improvement. Oh, and they’re pretty close to Disneyworld, does that count?
Slops: So look what happened last year. The Bucs win for a while, Gruden goes to ESPN because he wants to be on television, Raheem Morris, who is rather defensive-minded, comes in, and the Bucs proceed to go 3-13. They start Byron Leftwich at QB, who loses three in a row. They start Josh Johnson, he blows four in a row. They start Josh Freeman, who wins one at home against the Packers (a fluke in every sense of the word as the Bucs seem to have Green Bay’s number regardless of where they play) and then drops the next five in gut-check fashion. They won the last two, getting their first road win since…uh…some time in 2008. It’s not so much that they look hopeless – it’s their utter collapse, after years and years of making the playoffs (I believe six years between 1999-2009 counts as “years and years” in recent memory) that makes the apparent hopelessness seem an order of magnitude worse as it was their worst record since 1991.
Anyway, that concludes our power rankings. I have regaled over the great, roasted the terrible, and raised question marks in between. None of this is gospel, and I subscribe to most peoples’ notions that anyone can be anyone on any given day. Let’s hope the season is an exciting one, full of underdogs, upsets, devastating blowouts, daring comebacks, and lots of amusing melodrama. For now, this is MC, signing off. Coming up soon: The First Ever Second and One Reader Challenge.
*And yes. I crunched a LOT of numbers for this one for the sake of statistical validity. Even the Chiefs do not have such a large disparity, and for teams that are closer to .500 (ie, the Bears), the difference between margins becomes much smaller. Additionally, one has to realize that these numbers (especially the defeat number) becomes less important the smaller the sample size “N” becomes, to where it’s effectively meaningless eventually. Oh no, the Saints had an average margin of defeat by 8 points! So what? They only lost three games all season.
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