San Diego @ Denver: QB Kyle Orton sprained his left ankle against Washington last week. While he's officially listed as questionable for the game and the Broncos are keeping mum about who the starter will be, it's not looking good for Orton. After starting hot, the Broncos have dropped their last three. There is a lot of speculation about what's happened to the Broncos, but one of the most convincing theories is put forth by Gregg Easterbrook, who proposes that the Broncos train in high altitude very early in the fall and thus possess an edge in overall fitness to many other teams, but do not keep up this training regimen throughout the season. The end result: they simply run out of gas in the latter half. The Chargers are the opposite story. Year in, year out, they start slow and then finally show up around the same time the Christmas stuff shows up in the store. Last year, Philip Rivers was 4-0 in December, and this year, the San Diego Batteries have won their last four straight. The Bolts have also broken out in their running game, as best exemplified by LaDanian Tomlinson's two TDs in week 10.* Where the pass-wacky Chargers are lacking, still, is the rushing game, where they are ranked dead last. They also struggle on defense defending against the rush, and in a game where the Broncos are going to have to lean on the ground game, this could be a point of contention. Still, because of the injury and general psychology, I think I'm going to say voltage stuns and amperage kills and go with the Chargers.
In a parade of calendar hunks, Philip Rivers is Mr. December. Source: Eddie Perlas, Chargers.com
Philadelphia @ Chicago: After starting 3-1, the Chicago Bears (much to my extreme displeasure) have absolutely collapsed, dropping four of their last five. Their defensive schemes are outdated, they think "blitz" is some kind of food item, "discipline" is for schoolchildren, and they have been throttled by injuries. Any offensive package where the only two guys that can score are the tight end and the kicker is just as disastrous (see synonyms at "Oakland Raiders"). Jay Cutler has a good arm, but the Bears are looking woefully underdeveloped at wideout** and a poorly-coordinated offense, which frequently puts Cutler in situations where he screws up. And, to quote the head of our research group, "Yeah, you have to be pretty bad to lose to the 49ers." Rare Bears bits o' brilliance: The Bears' front 4 don't look too bad. WR Earl Bennett can catch the ball downfield. Greg Olsen has been generally good and has double the receiving TDs of anyone else on the team. Bears RB Matt Forte has proven he can make some amazing catches out of the backfield and appears to have terrific hands. The Eagles are blunderingly inconsistent, but once every three weeks or so, Donovan McNabb just goes off like a backpack full of dynamite. McNabb also has very dangerous weapons in WRs Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson, and hybrid TE/fantasy beast Brent Celek, the latter of which will enjoy himself tonight dragging Al Afalava from goalpost to goalpost. I regrettably pick the Eagles, and if the Bears win, I will simply be so happy that the Bears won and not worry that I blew the call.
Indianapolis @ Baltimore: As I stated two entries ago, the Baltimore Blackbirds are really struggling on offense. They struggled against Cleveland, only scoring one offensive touchdown in the second half. (To give a comparison, the Browns sacked Jay Cutler four times and still got creamed by 24 points.) On defense, in total yardage, pass yardage, rush yardage, and scoring ability, the Brownies are ranked 32nd, 20th, 30th, and 28th, respectively. If the Ravens can't score against these guys, they probably can't score against a Pop Warner team. Where the Ravens excel is on defense. Nobody watches a Ravens game to see Joe Flacco burning up the scoreboard, they watch a Ravens game to see the D smear the opposing team's O from sideline to sideline! But now Terrell Suggs is out and Ray Lewis, who is inarguably the best middle linebacker since Dick Butkus, has got to pull his weight. And here come the Indianapolis Colts, who are hotter than the center of the sun. The weakest of Baltimore's defensive units, actually, is their secondary, who allows over 200 pass yards per game on average. And here comes Peyton Manning. Do I need to say more? If the Ravens can remain committed to the run and crank up the pressure on Peyton, they might be able to send the Stampede to the glue factory, but I'm picking the Colts.
Cleveland @ Detroit: Both teams are an absolute disaster. The Browns are ranked last in every offensive category except the rush, where they are still an anemic 26th. They have not scored more than 20 points against anyone all season. Let's use alliterative descriptors for how badly the Browns have lost this season. Blanked by Baltimore, Crushed by Chicago, Ground by Green Bay, Punished by Pittsburgh, Maimed by Minnesota, and Drubbed by Denver. In the eight games they lost, the average margin of defeat has been nearly 19 points. Good Green Giants, they've been creamed more than my coffee. Let's look at the Lions. They've got more injuries than General Hospital, but are at least not ranked below 26th in any offensive category. However, they were Smashed by the Saints, Twice-Victimized by the Vikings, Blown Out by the Bears, Squashed by the Seahawks, and Pounded by the Packers. Nonetheless, their margin of defeat is only about 16 points. This one could go either way. I'm using super-sophisticated math and will subtract these margins of defeat, and I'm saying the Lions will win - by three points.
More later.
*Also, just before kickoff last week, LT's wife told him she was pregnant. Congrats to the Tomlinson family!
**I believe the joke was something like this: Q: Why can't Jay Cutler talk on the phone? A: Because he can't find the receiver!
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