Sunday, November 1, 2009

Happy Halloween!

Happy Halloween from Second and One! Anyone reading is probably hungover and/or suffering from a massive sugar crash and statistics probably aren't very easy to chew right now, so it's time for some silly allegories. Thus this question is posed: if various teams in the BCS dressed up for Halloween, what would they be?

Oregon went as a Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: At the beginning of the season, nobody thought Oregon was going anywhere. They looked abysmal in their opening game against Boise state. They lost their star running back due to disciplinary problems. They committed five special teams penalties against Purdue and won on a dodgy onside kick call. Between weeks two and three, however, the Ducks must have visited the exorcist and now score an average of 39.6 points per game, lead by dual-threat whiz-kid Jeremiah Masoli. Against USC (#5), the ducks amassed 613 yards of total offense, shellacking the Men of Troy by 27. 

UCLA went as Witches: Despite losing to Oregon State, they're always Bruin!*

Indiana University got creative and went as a Nuclear Reactor:...Which melted down spectacularly in the second half of the game. Leading Iowa (#4) by 14 at one point, the Hoosiers remembered they were second-to-last in the Big Ten, and the defense did not show up to play. The Hawkeyes outscored IU 35-3 in the second half.

Time for a reactor core check down in Bloomington! Source: McMaster University. Mini Soliloquy O' Science: the blue glow in nuclear reactors is called Cherenkov Radiation, and is caused by charged particles passing through the reactor insulators at a constant speed that's greater than the speed of light. Sadly, in the 4th quarter against Iowa, IU did not have any such speed or charge. 

To the same tune, Iowa went as Vampires: You just cannot kill these guys. This season, Iowa has been extremely lucky:

a) They won by scoring a TD in the last three seconds against MSU, whose defense played amazingly the entire game;
b) They blocked TWO field goals to avoid being dropped by relative cupcake Northern Iowa in week 1;
c) They won by only a field goal against Arkansas State, who belongs to the little known Sun Belt conference, where they are ranked seventh;
d) Ricky Stanzi threw five interceptions and still scored 28 points in the 4th quarter to avoid losing to IU!

I am starting to think that perhaps the Devil, after relinquishing his deal with Lloyd Carr, shopped around the conference and has signed Kirk Ferentz (and by proxy, Ricky "Vlad the Impaler" Stanzi!)

Of course, this begs the obvious question. After games like these, does Iowa really deserve to be #4 (or as some computers have calculated, #1) in the country? The BCS computers, when they crunch out the rankings, do not account for categories such as "choking away three quarters of a game and surging back in the fourth" or even "margin of winning" - and for good reason. Things would be a lot more unsportsmanlike if teams constantly had spitting contests to simply run up the score. Of course, there'd also be a lot less punting and things would be a darn sight more interesting. 

UNLV, Purdue, Tulane, and New Mexico State went as Zombies: Shut out by a combined 165 points, these teams were dead on arrival. For example, Purdue, whose dual run-pass threat normally averages over 400 yards, was held to just over 25% of its offensive production during the Massacre in Madison.

UNC went as a Baby: Cute in powder-blue and white and rather understated in sitting at 4-3, the Tar Heels then threw an absolute tantrum at Virginia Tech as Casey Barth kicked a buzzer-beating, extra point-sized field goal to knock off #13. Fun Fact: The Tar Heels were an astonishing 10/19 on third-down conversions. 

WAAH! WAHH! Who's cryin' now? Source: Scott Halleran, Getty Images

Vanderbilt went as a Brick House: Hey, the Commodores sang about it, and it's exactly how Vandy's been playing: looking nice and not moving much. Two puns for the price of one! In yesterday's good-old-fashioned 56-31 shootout, the Commodores allowed Georgia Tech to put up 597 yards of offense, of which a staggering 404 were on the ground. They also let the Yellow Jackets score two rushing touchdowns in the third quarter - forty seconds apart. Good heavens, at least a brick house would be better at stopping the run. 

Michigan went as an Area Rug: After they got walked upon, they got taken out and beaten. The once-proud Maize and Blue has lost their last two games by a combined 50 points; and not for lack of trying. The team is plagued by bad penalties, bad execution, and bad luck. Illinois, who is 2-6 and last in the Big 10, was all but blessed by the football gods; Wolverine receiver Roy Roundtree, hauling in a deep ball from Freshman Messiah Tate Forcier, made a 76-yard beeline for the end zone, where Illini DB Terry Hawthorne nailed him on the one-yard line. Illinois then executed a picture-perfect goal-line stand. Four downs. Four attempts to punch it in. Four stops. The Fighting Illini roared back with 500 yards of offense; and 31 points in the second half alone. Again, I ask: what happened to Michigan?

Hail, to low over-unders, hail to defensive blunders; hail, hail to Michigan, this team was once the best! Hail to bad quarterbacking, hail to repeated sacking, hail, hail to Michigan - disaster of the west! Source: AP, Seth Perlman.

***

And now, some NFL picks for week 8! I'm currently sitting at about 75% for my predictions, so we'll see if I can keep this streak alive:

St. Louis @ Detroit: Here's the fail-bowl of the day. Detroit has won one game all season. St. Louis is on par to become the new Detroit. The two things the Rams do have going for them: Steven Jackson, who has over 800 yards from scrimmage, and Donnie Avery, who can can catch the deep ball (owing that someone can get it to him) - and Detroit's pass defense is ranked 30th. Now here's what the Lions have going for them: despite the bungling, the fumbling, the stop-and-go offense, and the bad psychology, there is a chance that Matthew Stafford will start. When healthy, the kid is crazy accurate, and Calvin Johnson's got good hands, as does rookie tight end Brandon Pettigrew. What this game is going to come down to is the Rams' offense vs. the Lions' defense. St. Louis is ranked stone-dead last in ability to score, averaging just over 8 points per game - but Detroit needs to corral the run and cover the deep ball (which they've statistically had a pretty difficult time doing) - if they're to win. However, because Detroit was able to beat the Redskins (who are actually no slouch defensively), and prove that they can come out where it's close, Second and One will go against the analysts and pick the Lions in what's essentially the NFL equivalent of dividing by zero.

Cleveland @ Chicago: Of course, like most recent Bears games, the outcome will depend upon which Chicago team shows up to play. The problem with the Bears, historically, is once they hit the skids (especially after a blowout loss like last week's), they play down to the level of less talented teams, and these games end up being closer than they should be, nearly giving every Bears fan a coronary. I swear to Bob, these guys have shortened my life span considerably. I don't smoke and I exercise regularly, yet I'll probably have a stroke at 50 when the Bears miss a last-second field goal to lose the Super Bowl. Cleveland, however, is a bastion of bad news. Fan protests. Quarterback roulette. Ranked in the bottom ten on every category on both sides of the ball. The Bears (weaknesses and all) are out for blood and haven't lost in Soldier Field this season. Chicago, but by less than I'd like. 

Atlanta @ New Orleans: The Falcons, who struggle out on the corners, allow an astonishing 250 pass yards per game, on average (that's 26th.) And here they go, into the hot, deafening belly of the beast that is the Superdome to square off against calculating, gunslinging Drew Brees and the Scoring Machines. As Atlanta's secondary is suffering so terribly and will likely be scrambling to play man coverage with wideouts, I'd be on the lookout for one of Brees' signature moves: The jump-pass over the middle to Jeremy Shockey, who to me always seems approximately ten feet tall. Sure, the Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Michael Turner show cleans the clocks of lesser opponents, but against the likes of dangerous Darren Sharper (who has made six interceptions this season) - they probably don't stand much of a chance at all. Big Easy eats the Dirty Birds by at least ten.

Miami @ New York Jets: I have a hard time thinking about either of these teams. They are, respectively, second and first in the league in rushing. Thomas Jones! Ricky Williams! And I think, sadly, that both teams know this very obvious fact about each other and will easily focus most of their defensive efforts into into containing the run unless something gives. Get ready then, for an air assault. Comparing whom each time has under center, I think Miami might have the edge, considering the only thing Mark Sanchez throws these days are interceptions and crackback blocks. It's going to be a close one, but I'm picking Miami. 

That's all for now. Time to go out and find a bar where I can watch the Bears game.

*I had to get the bad puns out of my system early on. Thank you.

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